Analysis of influencing factors and construction of nomogram model for short term prognosis in patients with tuberculous meningitis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54029/2026ahcKeywords:
tuberculous meningitis, short-term prognosis, nomogram prediction model, risk factors, cerebrospinal fluid biomarkersAbstract
Objective: To identify risk factors and develop a nomogram for predicting short-term prognosis in tuberculous meningitis (TBM).
Methods: This retrospective study analyzed 99 TBM patients (70 with good and 29 poor prognosis patients based on modified Rankin Scale) from Guiyang Public Health Treatment Center (February 2023–June 2024). Clinical variables were compared, and logistic regression used to identify prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed and validated using ROC, calibration, and decision curve analyses.
Results: Age, hydrocephalus, acute cerebral infarction, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) chloride/ADA levels independently predicted poor prognosis (P < 0.05). ROC analysis revealed AUCs of 0.69 (age), 0.65 (hydrocephalus), 0.58 (cerebral infarction), 0.76 (CSF chloride), and 0.73 (CSF ADA). The combined nomogram model demonstrated superior predictive performance (AUC: 0.86) versus individual factors. Calibration and decision curves confirmed high accuracy and clinical utility.
Conclusion: The nomogram incorporating age, hydrocephalus, acute cerebral infarction, CSF chloride, and ADA levels effectively predicts short-term TBM prognosis with robust clinical applicability.
